Thousands of CEOs just admitted AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago | Fortune
Recent surveys show most executives report AI has had no impact on employment or productivity, echoing Solow's 1987 productivity paradox.Summary
A new NBER study of 6,000 executives across the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Australia found that nearly 90% reported AI had no impact on employment or productivity over the last three years, despite two-thirds using it for only about 1.5 hours weekly. This mirrors Robert Solow's 1987 observation that early computer technology was visible everywhere except in productivity statistics. While executives forecast significant future productivity gains from AI, current macroeconomic data, like that cited by Apollo's Torsten Slok, shows no corresponding surge, leading economists to question when the promised returns will materialize. Some researchers suggest the lag is due to implementation hurdles, worker distrust, or the need for organizational restructuring, though others see signs of an impending productivity surge similar to the one that followed the initial IT boom.
(Source：Fortune)